IPO Price Discovery Monitor

IPO pricing, measured on the deals pricing now rather than on a historical sample. Every US figure is rebuilt from primary filings: each final prospectus is matched to the preliminary prospectus the deal launched with, so the filed range, the offer price and the revision between them come from the documents themselves. What that revision costs in first-day return is the question underneath most of these charts.

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Market state

The last four quarters at a glance. Money left on the table is what underpricing cost the issuers: shares sold times the gap between the offer price and the first close.

Issuance and the pipeline behind it

Withdrawals are the visible part of a window closing — companies that got as far as filing and then gave up. Registrations lead pricings by roughly two to four quarters.

Deals priced per quarter

Registrations filed and withdrawn

All S-1 and F-1 filings, and all RW withdrawal requests, across EDGAR.

Underpricing and money left on the table

Means are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles so one triple-digit pop cannot define a quarter; medians are untouched. The gap between the two lines is the skew.

First-day return

Money left on the table, US$m per quarter

The gap, right now

Each series is judged against its own trailing four-quarter average, not a fixed historical benchmark. Quarterly counts are small — read the average, not any single point.

Range discipline over time

The share of deals priced inside the range the deal launched with. A revision during bookbuilding therefore counts as pricing outside the range, which is the point: the range is a commitment, and moving it is the concession.

Priced within the filed range

Where US deals priced

Composition by quarter: below, within or above the filed range.

Partial adjustment, re-estimated every run

Each point is one IPO. The slope is how much underpricing an issuer pays for each point of upward revision — Hanley's partial adjustment, re-estimated on current deals.

First-day return by pricing outcome

Mean first-day return for deals priced below, within and above the filed range.

What moves underpricing

Single-variable regressions, indicative rather than a specification. Each is re-estimated on the current window every run.

Fees and syndicates

The bar at exactly 7% is the one to watch: competitive pricing does not cluster on a round number. Chen and Ritter's result, live.

Gross spread distribution

By deal size

Aftermarket

What an outside investor could actually have earned, buying at the first close rather than the offer. Underpricing accrues to allocated investors; everything after it does not.

Median return by horizon

First day measured from the offer price; later horizons from the first close.

Who is listing

Who is choosing to list, and under which accommodations — emerging-growth status, confidential submission and dual-class stock are all decided before the range is ever set.

Industries

Ex-ante uncertainty and time on file

Range width is the issuer's own statement of how uncertain the valuation is; days on file is how long that uncertainty sat unresolved before the book opened.

Median filed-range width

Median days from first public filing to pricing

Deal browser

Every parsed deal, linked to the prospectus its numbers were read from. Sort by any column.

Coverage and provenance